Word of the day = defenestration

Marc Ross Daily June.png

Word of the day = defenestration

Marc Ross Daily
December 12, 2018
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics


TOP FIVE

✔️ UK’s May to face a no-confidence vote

✔️ Chinese state tightens grip 40 years after Deng's reforms

✔️ Marriott breach is traced to Chinese hackers

✔️ “proud to shut down the government for border security.”

✔️ Superdry has more than 550 stores
 

GEOECONOMICS

UK’s May to face no-confidence vote amid Brexit disarray: WSJ reports, British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to face a vote of confidence in her leadership after rebel lawmakers from her Conservative Party triggered a vote that could further destabilize the already chaotic Brexit process. 

Theresa May vowed to contest a vote of confidence in her leadership today with “everything I have got.”

Today’s PMQs will proceed.

Are there 158 MPs willing to vote against May?


Vote will happen this evening in London - results expected around 3:00 - 4:00 pm ET

Tory Eurosceptics trigger vote of confidence to seize control of EU divorce.

If PM May survives the vote, under party rules she cannot be challenged again for 12 months - meaning she will most likely lead the Tories into the next general election.

May's team discussed forcing a no-confidence vote weeks ago to strengthen her leadership.

If May loses, there will be a multi-round leadership election in which any Tory MP who can find themselves a seconder can stand.

Backbench MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, chair of the Brexit-supporting European Research Group, says Theresa May should resign.

Why now?  Under Conservative party rules, a leadership challenge is initiated if 15 percent of Tory members of parliament — at the moment 48 MPs — write letters to the chairman of the party’s 1922 Committee of backbench MPs demanding a confidence vote. The 1922 chairman, Sir Graham Brady, determines the date of a confidence vote “as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing.”

@NicolaSturgeon: Today is a stark reminder that the UK is facing chaos and crisis entirely because of a vicious civil war within the Tory party. What a self-centred bunch they are. They all need to go, not just the PM.

British Chamber of Commerce: "At one of the most pivotal moments for the UK economy in decades, it is unacceptable that Westminster politicians have chosen to focus on themselves, rather than on the needs of the country. The utter dismay amongst businesses watching events in Westminster cannot be exaggerated."

Who could replace May? Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, or Matt Hancock

Christmas market attack: A gunman killed three people and injured 13 in a suspected terror attack near a Christmas market in the French city of Strasbourg.

Nikkei: Chinese state tightens grip 40 years after Deng's reforms https://s.nikkei.com/2QqMBnz

"On Dec. 22, 1978, the Communist Party set out a strategy of "reform and opening up," a Deng-led attempt to turn the page on decades of economic stagnation that followed a series of disastrous political campaigns, including the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward."

"Under President Xi Jinping, the state has asserted tighter control over the economy, partially reversing forces set in motion by Deng. As characterized by the phraseguojin mintui -- meaning "the state advances as the private sector recedes" -- the Chinese Communist Party and the state are tightening their grip on business."

"Xi Jinping is a fervent disciple of Mao Zedong, not Deng Xiaoping," said Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong's Centre for China Studies.


Eurasia Group on the road ahead for the US and China: "It is very unlikely that the US and China will reach an agreement on trade issues by their agreed deadline of 1 March; the more likely scenario is extended negotiations that last through the first half of the year as ... Trump and Xi ... try to avoid further escalation without making deep concessions.

WP: China’s judgment on Huawei case: Anger, patriotism and iPhone boycotts

Huawei CFO released on C$10 million bail: FT reports, Meng Wanzhou must surrender passports and pay for private security guards to accompany her.

Trump said he would intervene in the Justice Department's Meng Wanzhou case if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal with Beijing.

WTF?!?

LAT: US investigators point to China in the Marriott data hack affecting 500 million travelers

NYT: Marriott breach is traced to Chinese hackers as US prepares crackdown


The hack was part of a Chinese intelligence effort that also breached health insurers and security clearance databases, people briefed on the inquiry said.

Japan unveils a plan for first aircraft carrier since World War II.

"Once upon a time, the job of an economist was to talk about economics. Now, most of the job seems to be trying to second-guess what politicians will do next." -- UBS' Paul Donovan. 

AMERICAN POLITICS

NYT: Trump threatens shutdown in combative appearance with Democrats

“proud to shut down the government for border security.”

‘This has spiraled downward’: Democrats introduce Trump to divided government: WP reports, during 17 extraordinary minutes of raised voices, pointed fingers and boorish interruptions, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer gave the president a taste of Washington’s new dynamic.

WH COS: Trump says he is looking at 10 or 12 candidates for chief of staff job and Kelly will stay on indefinitely.

Today: Sentencing of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer, after his guilty plea to tax fraud and campaign-finance crimes.

FL-SEN: Rick Scott spent a record $64 million of his own money to win the Florida Senate race.

@Redistrict: In January, House Dems will represent:

79% of Asians
78% of Whole Foods locations
72% of Latinos
66% of Clinton voters
66% of African-Americans
60% of college grads
54% of all Americans
45% of whites
39% of Trump voters
27% of Cracker Barrel locations
20% of America's land area


Why Beto O'Rourke in 2020 = small donors and Facebook: He raised $80 million for his Senate bid - most of that came from online donations. He used Facebook to live-stream videos of everything from his campaign rallies to eating lunch at Whataburger.

Sherrod Brown: Is looking rumpled a path to the presidency? 

No.

MoveOn 2020 presidential straw poll:

O’Rourke 15.6
Biden 14.9
Sanders 13.1
Harris 10
Warren 6.4
Brown 2.9
Klobuchar 2.8
Bloomberg 2.7
Booker 2.6


COMMERCE

Tencent Music public offering priced at $13 per American depositary share.

McDonald's to dial back on antibiotics in its burger meat.

Hitachi nears deal worth up to $7 billion for ABB's power grid business.

Superdry has more than 550 stores in 49 countries.

Google has 'no plans' to launch a Chinese search engine.

Morgan Stanley will lead Uber's IPO and rake in the most fees from a listing valued at as much as $120 billion.

Verizon has cut the value of its Oath media business—a pastiche of recently acquired firms including AOL and Yahoo—by $4.6 billion (almost half its value).

TRENDS + BUZZ

India media size: With nearly 500 million internet users and roughly 530 million smartphone users, India is the second-largest online and smartphone market in the world next to China.

Roughly 40% of India's total population is using smartphones and is accessing the internet.

Cars on the road: About 500 million cars were added to the global car fleet between 2000 and 2017, 75% in developing economies — and 40% in China alone, according to the IEA’s 2018 World Energy Outlook. Today, there are 1.1 billion cars on the road, and the fleet is expected to grow a whopping 80% by 2040. Much of that growth will take place in India, China, and other developing economies.

Throw the bird in the lake: Big e-scooter has unleashed about 1,000 two-wheelers in Oakland — with dozens of them ending up at the bottom of Lake Merritt. This Instagram account is dedicated to discarded scooters: https://www.instagram.com/birdgraveyard/

Beauty: The global beauty market is worth $532 billion.

Paper towels: The world spends about $12 billion on paper towels for home use annually.

Baby boomers are aging alone more than any generation in US history: About one in 11 Americans age 50 and older lacks a spouse, partner or living child.

CULTURE

Time's 2018 'Person of the Year': Killed and imprisoned journalists - "The Guardians." 

Kathie Lee Gifford to leave NBC's 'Today' Show in April.

Google's top US trending search queries for 2018:

1. World Cup
2. Hurricane Florence
3. Mac Miller
4. Kate Spade
5. Anthony Bourdain
6. Black Panther
7. MegaMillions Results
8. Stan Lee
9. Demi Lovato
10. Election Results


SPORT

The Ringer's favorite sports moments of 2018: From the Philly Special to UMBC’s upset to whatever J.R. Smith did in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, here are the sports moments that defined our year: http://bit.ly/2RT5Q6b

More Philly Special: UPenn basketball upsets No. 17 Villanova, 78-75, for the first time since 2002.

Champions League:

Today: All matches @ 3:00 pm ET


Ajax vs Bayern München
Manchester City vs Hoffenheim
Young Boys vs Juventus
Valencia vs Manchester United

Champions League = Through to round of 16: Ajax, Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern München, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Paris Saint-Germain, Porto, Real Madrid, Roma, Schalke, Tottenham Hotspur

Champions League = Can still reach the round of 16: Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk

Will transfer to Europa League round of 32: Benfica, Club Brugge, Galatasaray, Internazionale Milano, Napoli, Valencia

Memo: Now what? How to communicate during trade negotiations with a jailed Huawei executive

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Memo: Media Tendencies + Trends: US-China Commercial Relations

From: Marc A. Ross | Caracal Global

December 7, 2018

At the end of the 1972 film The Candidate, the main character and winning candidate Bill McKay, played skillfully by Robert Redford, utters the final line: "what do we do now?"

With the arrest of Wanzhou Meng, the CFO of Huawei Technologies (and daughter of the company’s founder), we find ourselves in the same situation.

Tim Culpan, writing for Bloomberg Opinion, described the situation as, "the arrest of Huawei's Meng is the equivalent of the dog catching the car."

So, what do we do now? The car has been caught.

All the talk of a trade truce has been overwhelmed with news reports ranging from who and what is Huawei, to how and what did President Trump know as he sat down to a working dinner in Buenos Aires with President Xi Jinping.

Even stories emanating from yesterday's Business Roundtable meeting suggest American executives warn that the cross-border arrest could make US-China experts wary about visiting China, out of concern over retaliatory arrests.

Even before Trump left EZE airspace, the trade truce had looked shaky as based as it was on mercantilism and a promise to talk more. Adding the arrest of a high-profile international executive and the face of modern and innovative China Inc. only adds more distractions and personality reporting.

Mark Gongloff in Bloomberg reported on developments with: "this is no Huawei to win a trade war" and went on to say "arresting the CFO of China’s tech champion could make Beijing angry for no good reason."

True, the arrest, as many on this side of the Pacific believe, was merely an independent US government agency, working in conjunction with Canadian authorities, executing a proper legal task. The fact Wanzhou Meng arrived via airplane into Vancouver on December 1 was a fantastic coincidence.

The independence of this action seems likely as Team Trump has been playing catch-up with this developing news story. Plus, the senior White House security and economic advisors have not been on the same page when explaining the situation.

1600 Pennsylvania Avenue has lost the narrative and is paying the price on the stock market as well as with media influencers and the White House press corps.

To refocus reporters and columnists on the key issues, plus renew the goodwill from the working dinner in Argentina, this morning the White House dispatched economic surrogates and strategists Larry Kudlow and Peter Navarro to speak with business and political cable news audiences. Both saying all is well, and the arrest is a separate issue from the trade and commercial talks.

Larry Kudlow dismissed "speculations" about a downturn, insisting: "we're humming."

Peter Navarro told CNN's Jim Sciutto: “it’s a question of moving forward on the strategy. … This (deal/engagement) is more historical than Nixon, Kissinger."

A potential path forward was laid out by Bill Bishop in his Sinocism newsletter. He suggests the "arrest will probably not derail the US-China trade talks. China needs the talks to succeed, and so while they may become more contentious, I will guess they will not stop."

However, he went on to say: "not that Xi ... needs another reminder of the existential threat that US technological dominance poses, but this case will be used as another rallying point in the increasing efforts to reduce reliance on the US, and is just yet another move in the spiraling US-China technology competition."

The growing media tendency and the trend shows increased media mentions of the need for American technology companies with an overreliance on the China supply chain will need to find equivalent alternatives, both in the short and long term.

Bishop closed his analysis with: "frankly boards of directors of those firms are negligent at this point if they are not pushing the company to do this planning."

When speaking with reporters and stakeholder audiences over the coming weeks, it will be necessary to execute a communications effort that is both agile and aggressive — the focus on American and Chinese negotiators working on a favorable resolution of the current frictions and making real advances on the numerous American business community concerns.

Talking points and messaging will need to operate on a twin track. First, communicating to ensure Xi's pledges for China to buy more American goods as well as, seriously addressing more profound American concerns around intellectual property rights and market access. At the same time, reinforcing Trump's pledge to wait until March 1 to raise a new tranche of tariffs, from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of goods.

Finally, reminding audiences that all the trouble and necessary fortitude to advance the US-China commercial relationship is worth the effort and is in the long-term interest of American economic security.

- Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross is the founder of Caracal Global and specializes in thought leader communications and events for senior executives working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

“You can’t have a Prime Minister called Dan. People called Dan work In fitness centers and listen to West Coast jazz.”

Marc Ross Daily June.png

“You can’t have a Prime Minister called Dan. People called Dan work in fitness centers and listen to West Coast jazz.”

Marc Ross Daily
December 11, 2018
Curation and commentary from 
Marc A. Ross

Reporting from Alexandria, Virginia 

Marc Ross Daily  = Business News at the Intersection of Globalization, Disruption, and Politics


TOP FIVE

✔️ EU rebuffs May’s plea for help

✔️ Humbled Macron tries to buy off angry protesters

✔️ Russia deploys two bombers to Venezuela for exercises

✔️ SoftBank's record IPO reaches $23.5 billion

✔️ Malls are not dying, the bad ones are

ROSS RANT

Memo: Now what? How to communicate during trade negotiations with a jailed Huawei executive

At the end of the 1972 film The Candidate, the main character and winning candidate Bill McKay, played skillfully by Robert Redford, utters the final line: "what do we do now?"

With the arrest of Wanzhou Meng, the CFO of Huawei Technologies (and daughter of the company’s founder), we find ourselves in the same situation.

Tim Culpan, writing for Bloomberg Opinion, described the situation as, "the arrest of Huawei's Meng is the equivalent of the dog catching the car."

So, what do we do now? The car has been caught.

All the talk of a trade truce has been overwhelmed with news reports ranging from who and what is Huawei, to how and what did President Trump know as he sat down to a working dinner in Buenos Aires with President Xi Jinping.

Read the full memo here: http://www.caracal.global/insights/

GEOECONOMICS

Brexit: PM Theresa May delayed a critical parliamentary vote on her Brexit bill, throwing both her government and her plans for the U.K.’s EU exit into disarray.

NYT: Facing defeat, Theresa May seeks delay on Brexit vote in parliament

Juncker rules out renegotiation of May’s Brexit deal
: FT reports, European Commission president vows there will be no concession on Irish backstop.

The Times: EU rebuffs May’s plea for help

Bloomberg - Editorial: May should admit that Brexit has failed


A vote must be held. The PM suggested this will happen before January 21. 

France: President Emmanuel Macron vowed to boost the minimum wage and cut taxes on some pensioners in an attempt to placate “yellow vest” protesters who have mounted demonstrations against his pro-business agenda.

Humbled Macron tries to buy off angry protesters: The Times reports, a contrite President Macron raised the minimum wage last night and unveiled a series of concessions in a €10 billion spending spree aimed at ending a month of violent protests that battered his administration.

"It is an economic and social state of emergency that I want to declare today," Macron says.

Gideon Rachman: Macron protests show that leading France is an impossible job: The French contradiction of a demand for lower taxes and better public services will stay unresolved.

Lionel Laurent: Emmanuel Macron puts on his yellow vest: France’s president has boosted spending to quell the riots. It might just work in the short term but it’s hard to feel confident about his future reforms.

Trade negotiations: The US and China started the latest round of trade talks with a phone call involving Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

Bloomberg: Huawei clash shows deeper US-China battle for global influence

"You are going to see elevated trade tensions for some time to come, potentially years." -BlackRock's Richard Turnill on U.S.-China trade

#Correct

Japan to seek bilateral deals on accepting foreign workers: Nikkei reports, the government aims to eliminate shady brokers through deals with eight countries.

Russia deploys two bombers to Venezuela for exercises.

Mexico to invest $30 billion to boost growth and stem migration in its poor southern states over the next five years.

Tuna fishing: Pacific island nations have vowed to oppose US efforts to increase its catch limit in the world's largest tuna fishery, saying the proposal does nothing to improve sustainable fishing. The United States is expected to try to increase its quota for bigeye tuna at a meeting of the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) taking place in Honolulu this week. The meeting brings together 26 nations to determine fishing policy in the Pacific, which accounts for almost 60 percent of the global tuna catch, worth about $6.0 billion annually.

AMERICAN POLITICS

WSJ - Editorial: Thank you, John Kelly: Trump seems to think he can be his own chief of staff.

WP: ‘There was no plan B’: Trump scrambles to find chief of staff after top candidate turns him down

Timothy L. O'Brien: Would you want to be Donald Trump’s chief of staff? The failure to recruit a relatively unknown 36-year-old to be chief of staff reveals a Trump administration still struggling.

"All of which is to say that chaos in the Trump administration isn’t a bug, it’s a feature."

Seriously, who would want to be the Trump's chief of staff?

HBD: John Kerry, US secretary of state (2013-17), 75

ENTERPRISE

Apple in China: A Chinese court ordered Apple to stop selling older iPhone models in the country after finding it infringed on two Qualcomm patents.

Huawei says it has cut ties to Skycom—which is shrouded in mystery in part because of its opaque ownership and its dealings with Iran—in 2009. The US says it didn’t. 

Lawyers for Huawei’s Meng fail to secure bail in Canada: FT reports, the finance chief of the Chinese company to fight extradition request from US.

Know this, Huawei mistrust imperils China tech ambitions.

Nikkei: Edgy executives cancel trips in wake of Huawei arrest

Crypto layoffs
: Cryptocurrency companies are laying off employees in an effort to survive the nascent market’s biggest selloff to date.

WPP to cut 3,500 jobs in a widespread restructuring.

Motown lodging: The new Shinola Hotel is scheduled to open in downtown Detroit in January 2019. 

CBS sells Television City for $750 million to Los Angeles real estate developer.

SoftBank's record IPO reaches $23.5 billion after extra share sale.

Walt Disney Studios is ending the year on a high note, posting more than $7 billion in global box office earnings.

Alexa voice assistant: Alexa will now read your newest emails to you. And, if you want, you can delete an email or reply to it by voice.

Instagram voice messaging: Users can hold down the microphone button to record a short voice message that appears in the chat as an audio waveform that recipients can then listen to at their leisure.

Bloomberg's best B-Schools rankings:

1.Stanford
2. Wharton
3. Harvard
4. Sloan
5. Booth
6. Haas
7. Columbia
8. Kellogg
9. Darden
10. IMD
26. Kenan-Flagler

Full rankings here: https://bloom.bg/2QoDNyB 

TRENDS + BUZZ

Digitally native brands are changing the American mall: As mall developers shift their aim to fewer, better stores, buzzy direct-to-consumer brands are increasingly popping up in shopping centers.

Malls are not dying, the bad ones are.

Time is luxury: Peloton’s value proposition is as much about what you can accomplish away from the treadmill. Why take the time to travel to a gym? That time could be better spent elsewhere. This is the mark of a modern luxury brand.

Peloton recently raised money at a $4 billion valuation.

Screen time is changing children's brains: In 2018, children are growing up in a world dominated by iPads, iPhones, computer screens, and TVs — and now, new research suggests that it’s literally affecting their brain structure. According to a new report on 60 Minutes, a landmark research study conducted by the National Institute of Health (NIH) found that brain scans of some 4,500 children showed “different patterns” depending on how much screen time they were exposed to per day.

Home prices: As of September, housing prices in the U.S. were 53 percent higher than they were when the market bottomed out in 2012. A house that sold for $200,000 back then would fetch about $300,000 today, which is the third-largest boom since 1913.

Electric car fuel: If all passenger cars in Texas were electrified today, the state would need 110 terawatt-hours more of electricity per year, which is approximately the annual electricity consumption of 11 million homes and also a 30 percent increase over current consumption. 

CULTURE

HBD: Nikki Sixx, musician, co-founder, Mötley Crüe, 60

Bohemian Rhapsody now most-streamed 20th-century song.

Voyager 2 just entered interstellar space: More than 40 years after lifting off from Kennedy Space Center, NASA’s Voyager 2 spacecraft is now in interstellar space. A region called the heliosphere surrounds the planets in our solar system.

Aquaman is swimming in it in China, grossing $93.6 million in its opening weekend. 

SPORT

Today: Momentum Generation on HBO @ 10:00 pm ET

Review: Momentum Generation, a new HBO surf documentary, brought this critic to tears. More than once: LAT reports, You do not need to be interested in surfing to be excited and moved by Jeff and Michael Zimbalist's excellent, eloquent documentary "Momentum Generation," which premieres Tuesday on HBO. A surf film might not be the first thing you’d expect to bring you repeatedly to tears, but I can say with authority it is possible.

Trailer: Momentum Generationhttp://bit.ly/2RKkxZ4

Mina Guli is running 100 marathons in 100 days to highlight a looming global water shortage. The 48-year-old Australian is galloping across the planet, 42 kilometers (26 miles) at a time.

Champions League:

Today
: All matches @ 3:00 pm ET

Liverpool vs Napoli
Internazionale vs PSV
Barcelona vs Tottenham Hotspur

Tomorrow: All matches @ 3:00 pm ET

Ajax vs Bayern München
Manchester City vs Hoffenheim
Young Boys vs Juventus
Valencia vs Manchester United

Through to the round of 16: Ajax, Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern München, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Manchester City, Manchester United, Porto, Real Madrid, Roma, Schalke

Can still reach the round of 16: Internazionale Milano, Liverpool, Lyon, Napoli, Paris Saint-Germain, Shakhtar Donetsk, Tottenham Hotspur

19 tactics to being a better thought leader in 2019

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1. Respond to ten social media updates and thoughts daily - don't just scroll

2. Send a daily email news overview of curated information relevant to your network

3. Execute a twelve-month blog post scheme that involves owned and earned media

4. Post a best of social post weekly on your LinkedIn profile

5. Present a 90-second video weekly on your YouTube page commenting on the news of the week

6. Invite a reporter your admire to coffee - do this ten times

7. Speak at three conferences - think adjacent possible when it comes to venues and topics

8. Submit four opinion editorials engaging both national and regional news outlets

9. Get interviewed on a podcast - do this five times

10. Produce a white paper report on the top trends impacting your network

11. Collaborate to organize a monthly MeetUp with experts in your network

12. Host a book club - meet quarterly

13. Launch a webinar interview series involving former classmates and professor - use that alumni network you paid so much to be a part of

14. Give an award for the year's best book, idea, business, thought leader, professor, conference, etc.

15. Cold email five people daily that you admire - tell them you appreciate and use their work

16. Arrange a salon dinner with a local author on a topic relevant to your network

17. Use Anchor to post daily audio commentary and thought leadership tactics

18. Host a multi-day thought leadership retreat

19. Remember STOC = strategy + tactics + organization + consistency

-Marc A. Ross

Marc A. Ross specializes in thought leader communications and events for senior executives working at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.